
Since 2007, there had been speculation of a possible recession starting in late 2007 or early 2008 in some countries.
In January 2008, the IMF predicted that 2008 global growth would fall from 4.9 percent to 4.0 percent (as measured in terms of purchasing power parity), however 2 months later it was announced that this projection was not low enough.[41]
There was significant speculation about a possible U.S. recession in 2008. If such a recession happened, it was expected to have a global impact.[42][43][44] The U.S. represents about 21 percent of the global economy, and impact of a U.S. recession could spread through the following:[45]
* Less spending by American consumers and companies reduce demand for imports.
* The crisis of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market has pushed up credit costs worldwide and forced European and Asian banks to write down billions of dollars in holdings.
* Dropping U.S. stock prices drag down markets elsewhere.
[edit] United States
The United States housing market correction (a consequence of United States housing bubble) and subprime mortgage crisis had significantly contributed to anticipation of a possible recession.
U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008, the most in five years. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on April 6, 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession." [46]. On October 1st, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that an additional 156,000 jobs had been lost in September. On April 29, 2008, nine US states were declared by Moody������¢���¯���¿���½���¯���¿���½s to be in a recession. [47]
Although the US Economy grew in the first quarter by 1%, [48] [49] by June 2008 some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food and steel", the country was nonetheless in a recession.[50] The third quarter of 2008 brought on a GDP retraction of .3%[51] the biggest decline since 2001. The 6.4% decline in spending during Q3 on non-durable goods, like clothing and food, was the largest since 1950.
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